How do you prove you're really the anti-science administration? It’s not enough just to deny climate change or spout anti-evolution slogans—any Republican can do that much. To be a serious member of the anti-science brigade, you need to stop funding research, including medical research.
Mick Mulvaney, the ultra-conservative South Carolina congressman whom Donald Trump has tapped to be his budget director, has questioned whether the federal government should spend any money on scientific research.
Mulvaney recently delivered his insights to the flouride-is-a-communist-plot John Birch Society, and for those really craving a flashback to the days of “the AIDS virus does not cause AIDS,” the man who would have his finger on the figures for the nation’s research budgets justified the attack on basic science by questioning the connection between the Zika virus and birth defects.
The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) concluded in April that the Zika virus causes microcephaly and other defects. But Mulvaney wrote:
“Brazil's microcephaly epidemic continues to pose a mystery -- if Zika is the culprit, why are there no similar epidemics in countries also hit hard by the virus?”
The answer is likely one that Mulvaney never even paused to consider—abortion. Brazil was hit first, but as the disease spread to other areas, increased awareness of its effects made detection and treatment more available.
But for those like Mulvaney, who regard all of science as some sort of mystery religion run by a cabal of leftists who only want excuses to steal money from hard-working billionaires and halt the righteous profits that could be made selling DDT, the idea that Zika only caused 1,500 cases of microcephaly is a reason to stop the payments on science.
President-elect Donald J. Trump’s transition team has circulated an unusual 74-point questionnaire at the Department of Energy that requests the names of all employees and contractors who have attended climate change policy conferences, as well as emails and documents associated with the conferences.
Climate Change Conversations Are Targeted in Questionnaire to Energy Department, by CORAL DAVENPORT, New York Times, DEC. 9, 2016
Lotta money to be made, ending the world.
Over the past many years, scientists have piled up evidence and data that point to humanity’s responsibility in warming trends to our planet’s climate. Republicans, backed by fossil fuel concerns and a base that is afraid that science will kill Santa Claus, have funded bogus deniers and enlisted hack right-wing writers and news-folk to sow the seeds of confusion surrounding what the science around climate change is. Texas Republican Lamar Smith is the oxymoronic Chairman of the House Science Committee. He spends a lot of energy trying to protect ExxonMobil. The other day his committee’s official government Twitter account tweeted out this.
The Breitbart piece was written by James Delingpole. Delingpole is the go-to Brit for climate denial writing at Breitbart, because he writes in a faux-British sarcastic and dry style—think of him as a dumb-man’s Nick Hornsby. The fake “wit” masks the fact that Delingpole is just a liar. The quote that Delingpole bases his attack on climate scientists is an article by David Rose at the Dailymail in England. Climate deniers have one argument that they conflate in varying degrees at any given time:
If the earth is getting “warmer” how come sometimes it still gets cold?
That’s basically it. In its most juvenile form it’s headlines from the New York Post during a cold stretch of winter putting out a headline saying “global warming?” In other forms it’s the oldest denier “science” fad—climate change “hiatus.” Since global warming is a large phenomenon, going day by day with your finger out the window won’t give you enough data to base a serious theory on. But, people like Delingpole and David Rose only need to remember that snow is cold to know that everything is fine. Even though this denial argument has been debunked, it doesn’t change the Republican post-fact repetition machine from squawking and squawking about it.
The Breitbart drivel above relies heavily on this story by David Rose. David Rose’s story doesn’t actually link to the “evidence” he pretends to give and that “evidence” isn’t real.
“They’re not serious articles,” said Adam Sobel, a Columbia University climate scientist. “They paint it as though it’s an argument between Breitbart and Buzzfeed when it’s an argument between a snarky Breitbart blogger and the entire world’s scientific community, and the overwhelming body of scientific evidence.”
Sobel said the articles “grossly misinterpret” a few accurate details, for instance that El Niño and La Niña systems play a large role in single-year fluctuations. “The temperature goes up for a couple of years and we have the largest year on record, then it goes down and it reaches a level that’s still well above 20th-century historical averages,” he said. “That in no way disproves anything about the causes of the long-term temperature trends.”
The House Science Committee is really taking a page from Donald Trump by using social media to propagate lies. However, it isn’t a new thing they are doing. Republicans love to take over government departments in order to defund and abuse those posts until no one believes in those government jobs as having any civil worth.
I have read recently several people claiming that you are wasting your money on vitamins and alternative medicine doesn’t work.
I start my story 28 years ago. I had just gone to the dentist and he told me I was going to have my gums cut back as the gaps had grown too large and that was all they could do in those days. I went to work and was complaining to my work partner and he left to his van and came back with a bottle of CO-Q10. He told me he couldn’t let the dentist to that to me and that the first bottle was free.
Within a week my gums started to bleed less and the constant pain was less. A month later I went to my next dentist appointment he was going to start the procedure to cut back my gums. He took one look at my mouth and instantly wanted to know what I had done as he had never seen anyone's mouth heal as much as mine and I no longer needed the procedure.
I have since learned that until around 50 your body produces Q10. Your body stores Q10 in your gums and in your heart. It starts to take from your gums first, then your heart.
I don’t take any other vitamins, but I do take on occasion some Chinese herbs. I have one that in the case I get a cold, it keep it from going down into my chest. I have had stomach pain all my life and when it happens I have some Chinese herbs to take the pain away. I also have a tincture for immediate stomach relief.
My body makes lots of mucus and I woke up sick every morning for years until I started working for an acupuncturist and he turned me on to special Chinese herbal mixture I cooked. Within a week I was no longer sick in the morning and I could breath better. I have since replaced that with an American herb tincture that grows here in the northwest. I can take deep breaths without coughing for the first time since catching Valley Fever as a child.
Being a seamstress and secretary all my life I started having shooting pain up my right arm. I could no longer open jars and even squeezing a sponge send sharp pain up my arm. I started acupuncture, the first week I didn’t notice much the second week my arm turned into a rock and I had never felt such pain. If my acupuncture hadn’t come free with my job, I might not have gone back, but I did and complained of the increased pain. She put about a dozen needles in my forearm and hand and the needles jumped almost the entire hour. Slowly over the evening my arm started feeling better and by the next morning I couldn’t believe how much pain was gone. It took about 2 months of once a week to return total use of my hand.
That was 5 years ago, I can now open jars and my strength returned to my hand. Twice in the last 5 years have thought I felt some pain in my hand and had a couple refresher treatments.
My free rescued cats from Catalina Island came with kitty herpes. I was having to buy and put in his eyes medicine every day to save his eyes. My vet suggested that I try L-Lysine as he had heard good things. At 1000 milligrams a day and my female started to heal, but it took 1500 a day to keep my male in good health. At the time they were in constant care of the vet as I was concerned about the amount of L-Lysine, he assured me they were fine. My male was eaten by a coyote a few years ago, but my female who is now 12 just had a vet appointment and they were impressed how healthy she is. She still gets her L-Lysine, I open caps and mix them with meat baby food. Yes, she is spoiled.
But my point alternative medicine is good for us and our pets.
Poll44 votes Show ResultsAfter this story would you try acupuncture?
44 votes Vote Now!After this story would you try acupuncture?
yes15 votesno24 votesmaybe5 votes
PEOTUS Trump has named Representative Tom Price (R-GA) to be his nominee to be the Secretary of Health & Human Services (HHS). As a quick look, he seems ever so reasonable: he is a surgeon (e.g., medical knowledge & experience) and has actually worked on legislation to fulfill the 'kill ObamaCare' Republican mantra. With that shallow summary of Price evidently in mind and driving their thinking, The Washington Post editorial board came out full-throttle calling out those expressing plans to oppose his nomination, stating that
"the nomination itself does not warrant Senate opposition" ...
"He is qualified to serve in the Cabinet." and
"Democrats should not object to him simply because they dislike the direction he wants to take health-care policy."
For PEOTUS, for the shallowly thought through 'repeal Obamacare but keep its popular elements' is a key plank, Price clearly makes sense. He has authored the most substantive (al beit disgusting and threatening to Americans' health and prosperity) House Republican 'replacement' bill for Obamacare. And, that is a core point in The Post's editorial:
"Mr. Price is a longtime member of Congress who has shown a particular interest in health-care policy. Though we disagree strongly with his Obamacare replacement plan, he at least fleshed out his proposal with numbers and legislative text."
Now, The Post follows the 'he is qualified' with a sentence describing legitimate grounds for opposing a Presidential nominee:
"Opposing executive confirmations should be an option reserved for truly exceptional circumstances: when nominees are simply unqualified or threaten more fundamental American values."
Whether seeking to normalize the #NotNormal or the result of sloppy background reporting/investigation, The Post's editorial board seems to have totally missed (and fails to discuss in this long editorial) key Price resume points that make clear that Price does "threaten more fundamental American values".
Price is a leading member of the deceptively entitled Association of American Physicians and Surgeons (AAPS). Scott Mandia, leveraging Donald Trump's favorite communication tool, (sadly too) accurately summarized AAPS in far less than 140 characters.
How is AAPS Flat Earth?
despite the lab coats and the official-sounding name, the docs of the AAPS are hardly part of mainstream medical society. Think Glenn Beck with an MD. The group has been around since 1943. Some of its former leaders were John Birchers, and its political philosophy comes straight out of Ayn Rand. ... The AAPS statement of principles declares that it is “evil” and “immoral” for physicians to participate in Medicare and Medicaid, and its journal is a repository for quackery. Its website features claims that tobacco taxes harm public health and electronic medical records are a form of “data control” like that employed by the East German secret police. An article on the AAPS website speculated that Barack Obama may have won the presidency by hypnotizing voters, especially cohorts known to be susceptible to “neurolinguistic programming”—that is, according to the writer, young people, educated people, and possibly Jews.
Consider the HHS mission and organizations like the Centers for Disease Control (CDC) with a mandate to protect Americans' health ... And, then consider that Price is signed onto an anti-science organization that decries immunizations for medical personnel, attacks evidence-based medicine, ...
Now, is Tom Price and the AAPS one and the same? Uncertain as we do not really know Price's true allegiance to and agreement with AAPS and the material it publishes. As put here,
Tom Price probably doesn’t buy into all the quackery of the AAPS, but my reading thus far leads me to believe that he fully embraces the and Ayn Rand-worshiping wingnuttery the organization. ...
However, you can learn a lot about a person by the people with whom he associates and the groups he joins and supports. By joining the AAPS, Price has shown that he is clearly attracted to a pre-Medicare vision of a golden era of absolute physician autonomy with minimal or no government interference or programs like Medicare, as well as a hostility towards evidence that conflicts with that vision.
There is no arguing this, as these are beliefs that are baked into the DNA of the AAPS; they are central to the organization. Attraction to such beliefs is not a good trait for a Secretary of HHS to be attracted to, and I haven’t even really gotten into Price’s fundamentalist antiabortion beliefs, and his implacable opposition to gun control. It’s going to be a long four years when it comes to health policy.
Let us be clear, until Price makes clear his level of allegiance to AAPS, AAPS' off-the-charts anti-science approach to medicine certainly seems to meet The Post's standard for why one could/should oppose a nominee.
NOTE: The Post’s normalization doesn’t bode well for interpretations of other rabidly anti-science and outside the norm nominees that will, sigh, dominate the billionaire-class Trump Administration appointees.
The climate denial-o-sphere, most prominently with the eminent scientific wisdom of Sarah Palin, has been trying to create buzz with “Climate Hustler” — a truthiness and falsehood-laden “documentary” that had a “premiere” night Monday that, well, fell like a thud.
As to Sarah,
"If 97% scientists believe man's activities causing changes in weather, who am I to question that?" -Sarah Palin
Right, Sarah, who are you to question that?
In any event, those climate-science denial hustlers did get national TV visibility … though perhaps not the desired visibility.
As I shared it earlier,
We’ve been seeing ‘late night’ humorists doing some of the best climate science communications. Last night, Jimmy Kimmel joined the ranks of ‘must see TV’ when it comes to climate science discussions with a laugh. (Okay, honestly, many laughs).
The following is highly recommended watching … and make sure not to miss the last, especially powerful, few minutes.
Read More
Arctic sea ice extent, area and volume has collapsed to record low levels for November as warm Atlantic ocean water has pushed into Arctic seas that used to be ice covered. Sea ice cover is also low on the Pacific side.
The warm Arctic sea water has allowed warm storms to inject huge amounts of heat over the north pole raising surface temperatures to above freezing in areas that are normally twenty degrees below zero Fahrenheit. Temperatures today are 50ºF above normal near the pole.
But that’s not all. The lack of sea ice has dramatically affected the northern hemisphere’s atmospheric circulation for months. The heat this fall has formed a warm dome over the Arctic ocean and provided moisture for deep, early Siberian snow. A record deep Siberian snow pack for October pushed south of normal developing a deep pool of cold air over central Siberia.
The much larger than normal temperature contrasts (gradients) across Central Eurasia have intensified the polar jet stream across Asia and the north Pacific Ocean. This is a predicted consequence of intense early snowfall in Siberia associated with warm water entering the Arctic seas. This fall has had all time record minimum sea ice extent in the seas north of Eurasia and this unprecedented weather pattern is the atmospheric response to these warm waters so deep into the Arctic.
Intense atmospheric waves, associated with intense storms have whipped across both the Pacific and Atlantic. When intense storms approached the Arctic from both the Pacific and Atlantic in late October the stratospheric polar vortex was pinched from both sides, a 2 wave pattern, and split in two.
This stratospheric polar vortex split is unprecedented for so early in the Arctic winter season as far as I know. The stratospheric polar vortex is now unstable and may undergo a major midwinter warming in the next ten days. It may be the earliest major midwinter warming ever seen.
There may be a silver lining in this disturbing news. The strong jet stream that is locking in across the Pacific because of the cold pool that has formed under the Aleutians in response to the repeated intense cold storms is breaking down the La Niña weather pattern that would have extended the drought in California. An intense jet stream across the Pacific usually brings heavy mid-winter rains to California and the Pacific northwest.
Please note that I am a geochemist who has been involved in climate research related to nuclear waste disposal safety assessment but I am not an expert in atmospheric sciences. Because stratospheric processes involve very complex physics I must carefully review the work of experts to insure my writing is based on science, not my pet theories. In the process of reviewing recent research to support my writing I discovered the pioneering work of Dr. Judah Cohen at AER corporation. His recent blog post on the Arctic oscillation www.aer.com/… confirmed my observations and went much deeper into the subject than I can.
Much of his post is highly technical but here is the good news that rains might come to California despite NOAA’s forecast of a weak La Niña, a pattern that usually is associated with dry weather in California.
SSTs/El Niño/Southern Oscillation
Equatorial Pacific sea surface temperatures (SSTs) continue to be weakly cooler than average (Figure 14) and most winter ENSO forecasts are for weak La Niña conditions. La Niña conditions favor a negative Pacific/North American (PNA) pattern that produces cold anomalies in the northwestern US and warm anomalies in the Southeastern US. But the big story of late has been the rapidly cooling SSTs across the mid-latitudes of the North Pacific. These cool waters seem to be a result of the very cold temperatures that developed across Siberia this October. The cold air across Siberia both being advected out across the North Pacific and strengthening the westerlies across the North Pacific have dramatically cooled SSTs in the North Pacific. This seems analogous to the winters of 2013/14 and 2014/15 when cold temperatures in Canada cooled North Atlantic SSTS and strengthened the Jet Stream to record speeds as it headed towards Europe. This dramatic cooling of SSTs demonstrates we are more confident that the atmosphere forces SSTs than SSTs force the atmosphere in the mid-latitudes. Warmer than normal SSTs to the north near Alaska and colder than normal SSTs across the mid-latitudes, could favor a southward shift the in the Jet Stream across the North Pacific this winter. The cool waters across the mid-latitudes could help strengthen the Aleutians low further south opposite to what might be expected during La Niña.
And the weak polar vortex could lead to intense cold air outbreaks over the northern hemisphere continents in midwinter. The Climate Prediction Center’s forecast of a warm winter across the southern states may be disrupted by intense cold outbreaks because the weak polar vortex will be unable to keep the cold air locked up in the northern climes. The Arctic ocean may experience unprecedented heat at the same time that brutal cold builds over Siberia. Where that brutally cold Siberian air goes will determine who gets the cold winter.
My history in this group, DKU, has been as a caretaker and happened only because I just tried to carry this group over from DK3-DK4, and now that we’re in DK5, perhaps there are some faculty, ex-faculty. researchers, or interested fellow travelers who may wish to be connected, as others who perhaps got lost as other DK fractures occurred like defections to FDL, caucus99, etc.
No, I don’t have an interest in being a boss of this... (Kos would be our ex officio Chancellor/President anyway),
I just hope that like-minded retired, employed, unemployed, and underemployed faculty might be interested in networking and participating in what could be some interesting projects…
for example some sample areas but not an exhaustive list:
In an editorial entitled “The Supplement Paradox: Negligible Benefits, Robust Consumption” accompanying the new report, Dr. Pieter A. Cohen, of Cambridge Health Alliance and Somerville Hospital Primary Care in Massachusetts, pointed out that “supplements are essential to treat vitamin and mineral deficiencies” and that certain combinations of nutrients can help some medical conditions, like age-related macular degeneration. He added, however, “for the majority of adults, supplements likely provide little, if any, benefit.”
Among the changes found in the new study: multivitamin/mineral use declined to 31 percent from 37 percent, “and the rates of vitamin C, vitamin E and selenium use decreased, perhaps in response to research findings showing no benefit,” Dr. Cohen wrote. Sometimes people do act sensibly when faced with solid evidence.
However, he added, “other products continued to be used at the same rate despite major studies demonstrating no benefit over placebo.” Thus, the use of glucosamine-chondroitin to relieve arthritic pain remained unaffected by the negative results in 2006 of the Glucosamine/Chondroitin Arthritis Intervention Trial and several follow-up analyses.
Me, I’ve always thought that if the label says it doesn’t treat, prevent or cure anything, it probably doesn’t treat, prevent or cure anything.science
I disappeared for a few days after the election of a man who espoused racism, xenophobia and misogyny as the reasons to vote for him. His actual policy proposals were threadbare and, if he really believed them, we are looking a historical dismantling of all that is special about the USA. It’s hard to choose what scares me most about this sexual predator’s policies, but the antiscience Donald Trump ranks pretty much at or near the top.
Generally, the Republican party is quite antiscience. Republicans deny climate change. Republicans deny evolution, while Trump’s running mate, Mike Pence, is hypercritical of evolution. And of course, Republicans have shown themselves to be vaccine deniers. There’s a lot more, but many of us consider those topics to be in the top 5 list of science denial. Frankly, if someone said that Trump believed in alien visitations and Sasquatch, and he was sending tax money to investigate them thoroughly, I wouldn’t be surprised.
On a broader level, a Trump administration will probably gut science research by cutting funding to National Institutes of Health and NASA programs in basic scientific research. There are probably areas, where Trump will appoint directors who are opposed to the years of science that form a basis of policy.
Despite the press tacitly being in bed with Trump, never really investigating him, Hillary Clinton won the election based on the popular vote, with a several hundred thousand vote lead over Trump. I think most Americans wanted a President who supported science. Sadly, Trump won the election because the USA uses an antiquated and anachronistic method to actually choose the president. A method that is based on needs of 250 years ago and on the negotiations required to get slave holding states to agree to the new Union. But, I’m not a political scientist, and the arguments for and against the Electoral College system of voting would be far beyond what are topics for this website.
Let’s just look at the antiscience Donald Trump, sticking to the key issues of climate change, evolution, and vaccines.
First of all, Trump himself has not clearly articulated an opinion about science, but there are more than enough clues where he is going. Given Trump’s distinct lack of intellectual curiosity about almost anything but a woman’s genitals, he probably couldn’t explain the difference between biological evolution and young earth creationism. According to Hemant Mehta,
In other words, Trump panders to the right wing evangelical vote by claiming he supports it, but then also supports a theistic evolution, which is not supported by science and which attempts to reconcile religious beliefs with the scientific fact of evolution. Most scientist reject theistic evolution as science, but I guess on the scale of scientific evolution to pseudoscientific creationism, it sits somewhere in the middle.
What’s more problematic are some of the advisors attached to Trump through the transition to taking office. The aforementioned Vice President-elect, Mike Pence, is rabidly anti-evolution. One of Trump’s key advisors is Dr. Ben Carson (yes neurosurgeon) who was a candidate for the Republican nomination to the presidency. Dr. Carson has reiterated his belief in creationism, it is no secret. Carson claims that his creationist beliefs have not been a hindrance to his becoming a physician and surgeon.
Some of the readers here might think, “I don’t like evolution deniers, but it’s not like climate change which is really dangerous.” Except not knowing about evolution is dangerous. Theodosius Dobzhansky once wrote, “nothing in biology makes sense except in the light of evolution.” All of basic medical research relies on intimate knowledge of the power of evolution. We know how to attack viruses and other microbes because we understand how evolution works. We understand DNA and how it relates to diseases and treatments, because of our knowledge of evolution.
If we become a nation of evolution deniers, where creationism is taught as “science,” then the country falls behind in medical innovations that save lives. Ironically, so that our country can still make money on medical research, we’d have to hire foreign skilled researchers and scientists who aren’t ignorant in the fact of evolution.
Finally, though not directly evolution, understanding related facts like the age of the earth and how the earth changes over time, gives a better chance to grasp the fact of anthropogenic climate change. Which leads to the second problem with the antiscience Donald Trump.
As bad as the antiscience Donald Trump is about evolution, there is more direct statements from him about anthropogenic climate change, that is, human-caused global warming. According to a Scientific American analysis of the four candidates for President (including Jill Stein and Gary Johnson), Trump’s antiscience views on climate change are pretty clear:
Trump refers to “climate change” in quotation marks, apparently to signal that he still believes—as he has asserted in the past—that human-caused global warming is a hoax. Then he suggests that “our limited financial resources” are best spent on things such as clean water and anti-malaria efforts, without acknowledging the argument that the success of such efforts could be largely influenced by how climate change is addressed.
And then there’s this Tweet from the antiscience Donald Trump:
Or this one:
Or this one:
To be fair, the aforementioned evolution-denier, VP-elect Mike Pence, is at odds with Trump on climate change. It’s pretty upsetting to learn that the right wing anti-gay, anti-evolution, and anti-abortion VP elect is the sane one.
To be even more fair, Trump is no different than the rest of the science denying Neanderthals that make up the Republican Party. Most Republicans and their voters are solidly on the side of climate change denial. Let’s be absolutely clear – climate change is a scientific fact, supported by a huge consensus of the most important scientists and scientific institutions across the world. To refute this consensus, Donald Trump and his Republican lackeys need to provide more than bullshit conspiracy theories and pandering rhetoric. But, that’s how the antiscience Donald Trump lost the election won the majority of electoral votes – pandering to the lowest common intellectual denominator of the electorate.
I guess we could wait until sea level rise destroys the lower elevation parts of the USA. But by then, it will be too late.
But there is one more topic, where the antiscience Donald Trump drives this scientist crazy. It’s vaccines, or more precisely, vaccine denial from President-elect Trump that is dangerous in both the short- and long-term. I’ve written several articles about Trump’s antiscience views about vaccination several times before. Trump continues to push the trope that “vaccines cause autism,” despite the overwhelming high quality which clearly states that vaccines and autism are unrelated.
Trump also pushes the false narrative that too many vaccines cause autism:
Again, another belief that’s refuted by real science. I know that Trump lacks the intellection wherewithal to actually uncover facts, but we’re not talking about some potential threat – the real facts are without vaccines, children will be harmed and die from vaccine preventable diseases.
Oh but it’s so much worse. The anti-vaccine cult thinks it helped elect Trump (I don’t think exit polls ask about vaccines, so I doubt there is real information anywhere). As I wrote prior to the election Trump met with world’s greatest scientific fraud, Andrew Wakefield to discuss vaccines. The Trump-Wakefield bromance lead to this statement from Mr. Wakefield,
For me, this is a one issue election. That is the future of this country, invested in its children. And if we have mandatory vaccination, in this country, in this state, as they have in California, it’s all over…so you use your vote extremely carefully.
There is one person, whatever else you may think about him, who has expressed the fact that he knows that vaccines cause autism, that vaccine damage is real, and that this is an issue that will never lead, in his mind, to mandatory vaccination.
He would never allow mandatory vaccination. I had the privilege of meeting with him to discuss this precise issue. He (Trump) is on our side.
With that support, the antivaccine gang is demanding payback from Trump. The eloquent Orac outlined several demands that the vaccine deniers are insisting be pushed their way:
Another, much smaller, group of supporters who think they can get something from the Trump administration after January 20, 2017 are antivaxers. As I’ve mentioned before, in general, antivaxers leaned heavily towards Trump, thanks to Donald Trump’s long, sordid history of antivaccine statements in interviews and on Twitter. I’ve documented them before on multiple occasions going back to 2007, which is the first time I learned of Trump’s antivaccine proclivities, leading me to frequently observe that, given Trump’s well-known history of flip-flopping and taking multiple sides of any issue based on convenience, his antivaccine views are quite possibly the one set of beliefs that he’s been utterly consistent about for at least a decade.
Orac details the all the antivaccine nonsense of Donald Trump (linked above), so I’ll be lazy to not repeat them. However, I cannot let go of a blog post by the reprehensible and disgraceful Levi Quackenboss (nom de plume of a well-known antivaccine creep), which has the temerity to outline a list of demands of Donald Trump. She makes the following list of demands:
Wow, that’s some list of demands. Let’s look at them.
Levi Quackenass can ask for whatever she wants, but I doubt it will get much of a hearing. Donald Trump and his Republican Party (it’s really his) will overreach in other areas, like selling off public lands, repealing Obamacare, denying climate change, and pushing religion into schools. It protects their base of support.
Of course, Quackendork isn’t the only one pushing Trump about vaccines. Dr. Rachael Ross, one of those TV doctors known more for their on-air presence rather than actual medical knowledge, recently wrote on Facebook, “Well, back to business…So Mr. Trump, can we discuss this vaccine schedule?”
Antivaccine voters are a tiny minority, probably less than 5%. And they’re mostly crackpots, probably too few for even Donald Trump and his crowd of crackpots to consider. But who knows, Trump’s well known lack of intellectual prowess might get distracted by it for a minute, and suddenly, it’s policy.
I do worry that Trump could name heads of the CDC, NIH and HHS that are not as pro-science as we would like. And despite all the whining about Big Pharma, the US leadership in medical devices, pharmaceuticals and equipment means a lot to the US economy. If we don’t fund science at the rate that we have in the near past (which is way down from pre-Reagan days), we will fall behind Japan, Europe and other areas in this critical technology.
There’s a lot of reasons to loathe Donald Trump. His nefarious activities and mistreatment of women are near the top. His pandering to racists and xenophobes are others. His lack of intellectual curiosity and broad experience with national and international issues is scary. His lack of temperament to deal with the intense pressures of the presidency gives me an existential fear of the future.
But as a scientist, his tradition and comments that indicate a deep-seated disdain for science and scientific thinking will bring great harm to this nation and its people. And the damage to science can last generations, even if the Democrats get their act together (wouldn’t bet on it) and block him from his most outrageous decisions. Science matters to our country, and I fear that Donald Trump will be a great enemy to technology and science.
We’re screwed, and we have a lot of deep issues to think and argue about. Most are so hard to resolve that we are likely to slip into the sorts of mutual recriminations that have plagued many recent exchanges here. The question of how to read polling data, however, is sufficiently well defined, with fast enough real-world feedback, that we can use it to make some conclusions. And then maybe we can think about the extension of those conclusions to the more contentious questions of what to do next.
There were many poll aggregators and other election predictors this season. These included Drew Linzer for DKos, Nate Silver for 538, Nate Cohn for the NYT Upshot, Sam Wang for the Princeton Election Consortium, a collection of bookies and gamblers from around the world, Predictwise, PollyVote,… The two most discussed here were Silver and Wang, who conveniently represent pretty much the opposite ends of the prediction spectrum. There were many differences between their methods, as I shall discuss, but the biggest difference was that they had radically different estimates of the uncertainty in the predictions. Silver thought the uncertainty was large, Wang thought it was small. So Silver gave about a 30% chance of Trump winning and Wang gave less than 1%. Needless to say Silver was more realistic. I’ll go over some of the technicalities, but that’s not the point of this story. The point is to encourage introspection on the part of the dozens of DKos bloggers and commenters (and Huffpo writers, etc.) who were highly critical of Silver and his defenders and in the process revealed some mental habits that may be harmful in the very hard times ahead.
The most persistent theme of the commenters here was to explain in detail the motives for each change or lack of change in the 538 odds. Everything was treated as if it were a decision made for a reason. Some results were supposed to be just “clickbait”, others reflected Silver’s corporate conservative streak, some his embarrassment over having written (contrary to his quantitative model) that Trump was unlikely to get the nomination, and so on. The idea that the whole output was determined by a preset algorithm seemed incomprehensible to most Kossacks, no matter how often several of us pointed it out. So all that psychoanalysis was devoted to the output of a long-standing computer algorithm! In effect, it was a Rohrschach test, in which people revealed the sorts of things that they themselves would do with data. (Technical note: Silver actually made a couple of small adjustments. One was to include the possibility off McMullen winning UT, an unforeseen and irrelevant complication. The other was to include a new low reliability rating for the huge new state-by-state dumps of wildly fluctuating results from several online surveys, such as Google’s. )
Silver’s algorithm had a number of distinct features. These included grades for pollsters, in which the weight given to their polls depended on past accuracy, and house-effect adjustments by which pollsters with strong R or D leans would get adjusted to compensate for that. Both of these features tend to reduce jitter in the results, making less click-bait news than simpler aggregators (e.g. Huffpo) find. A trend-line adjustment was also included, in which older polls were adjusted to reflect any trends consistently found since they were taken in national polls, other polls of the same state, or polls of states with similar demographics. Again, all the parameters for this adjustment were put in at the start, having been tuned to do a good job on results from past years. This is just a common-sense way of making the aggregate responsive to changes, without introducing too much extra noise. When HRC was going down in the polls, people here thought that the trend-line was a subjective thumb on the scale and should be eliminated. When she was going up they thought that it wasn’t responsive enough. When R-leaning polls were adjusted toward D, they didn’t notice. When D-leaning pols were adjusted toward R, they protested the thumb on the scale.
Wang’s model was extremely popular here. One reason given was that it was simpler, which it was. Other reasons given were that it was more stable (actually the expected margin was about as changeable as Silver’s), that it involved no subjective changes (actually, there was a huge subjective change midstream, in which the expected variability was cut by a large fraction), that it didn’t use t-distributions (but Wang said it did), and so on. In other words, people were just making things up to justify a preference that had an entirely different motive. That motive wasn’t subtle- Wang’s model said early on that the probability of an HRC win was extremely high, and kept that prediction (getting to 99+%!) right up to the election. It sounded good so people made up traits it didn’t have about statistical features they didn’t understand to give objective-sounding reasons for why they believed it.
One of the most common sayings around here was that regardless of the national polls, all that mattered was state results, because of the electoral system. The electoral vote was supposed to be secure regardless of the polling changes. The problem was that in Silver’s simulations it was far more common for HRC to win the popular vote and lose the election than the other way around. The sayings here were not only not based on data, they directly contradicted the only serious attempt to see what the data indicated.
OK, that’s enough for now of the technical details about unimportant differences between the models, and how people here misunderstood them and used them as excuses to not pay attention to Silver. What about the difference that mattered- the radically different estimates of the uncertainty? Silver’s justification for large uncertainty was very simple: the national polling aggregate was off about 3% (D) in the 2014 Senate elections, about 3% (R) in the 2012 Presidential election, almost 3% (R) in the 2000 Presidential election. Due to non-response bias, polling is getting harder, not easier. Pollsters have to guess which groups will actually turn up and vote, and that’s not easy. So errors like that are not rare. The national error this year was about 2.3% (D). Beyond those national errors, there can be even larger errors in groups of similar states, e.g. the rust belt. So Silver specifically warned that if NH started to look weak, that could be the first sign that states with lots of old white folks were weakening, and that the rust belt might not hold. He said that effect had a good chance to swing the Electoral College, but less chance to swing the national popular vote.
Almost no one here listened. People who paid attention and understood the reasoning were called “concern trolls”, “Debbie Downers”, “bed-wetters”, etc. We heard calls to expand the campaign beyond AZ to MO, GA, even TX and SC. We heard that thanks to minority voters and/or women a loss was impossible.
What about Wang’s very low estimate of the inter-state correlated uncertainty, the estimate so many serious-sounding people here described as much sounder and more objective? I’ll let him have the last word on that:
I did not correctly estimate the size of the correlated error – by a factor of five. As I wrote before, that five-fold difference accounted for the difference between the 99% probability here and the lower probabilities at other sites. We all estimated the Clinton win at being probable, but I was most extreme.
So what are the lessons to draw? The technical ones are hard to summarize quickly, especially since we can see that some very smart and well-educated people got them wrong. The less technical ones are more interesting here.
The same absolute refusal to consider dissenting views, warning signs, etc. that was provably mistaken on the numerical issue showed up on all other issues related to the election- what candidate to choose, how to approach voters, who to write off, who to try to persuade, etc.. The same abuse, playground taunts, appeals to group identity, etc. That stuff ain’t productive. It’s scary, though not as scary as a Republican Supreme Court, a speed-up of global warming, and kicking 20,000,000 people off health insurance, including one of my sons.
Early in the primary season, the same group-think mentality inhibited any realistic assessment of vulnerabilities. If we were unable to even listen to each other, we were even more unable to listen to others. HRC was the sure-fire candidate as the most popular woman on the planet, and besides it was so unfair that she was strongly disliked by half the voters.
Are Hillary supporters the only culprits? Hardly, there were some very unrealistic election memes circulating among Bernie supporters later on in the primaries. As for the polls showing consistently that Bernie would do 5% or more better than HRC against Trump, we will simply never know whether any of that would have held up to the rigors of a real and dirty campaign.
Would it have mattered if DKos readers and similar types had been more realistic? Maybe- we wouldn’t have lulled people in swing states into thinking it was in the bag. It seems (based on the leaked emails, etc.) that the HRC campaign was more tough-minded than DKos readers, but still evidently prone to some of the same lack of realism. They didn’t go back to MI until hitting a bit of panic at the end, and never went to WI.
There are going to be extreme challenges in the years ahead. On the most important issue, the global environment, we are likely to mostly fail, with catastrophic results. We will still be the same species, and prone to the same systematic mental errors. But it’s still possible to fight them a bit, to try to train ourselves to be a bit more objective. Then maybe we won’t fail quite as catastrophically.
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A new study out of Purdue University says that banning GMO crops around the world would raise the costs of food while also lifting the amount of carbon dioxide we put into the atmosphere.
Using a model to assess the economic and environmental value of GMO crops, agricultural economists found that replacing GMO corn, soybeans and cotton with conventionally bred varieties worldwide would cause a 0.27 to 2.2 percent increase in food costs, depending on the region, with poorer countries hit hardest. According to the study, published Oct. 27 in the Journal of Environmental Protection, a ban on GMOs would also trigger negative environmental consequences: The conversion of pastures and forests to cropland - to compensate for conventional crops' lower productivity - would release substantial amounts of stored carbon to the atmosphere.
What will be even more dismaying to anti-GMO advocates is that if other countries revved up their GMO productions, it would be beneficial to our globe’s emissions issues.
Conversely, if countries that already plant GMOs expanded their use of genetically modified crops to match the rate of GMO planting in the United States, global greenhouse gas emissions would fall by the equivalent of 0.2 billion tons of carbon dioxide and would allow 0.8 million hectares of cropland (about 2 million acres) to return to forests and pastures.
Interestingly, if there was a global ban on GMOs, the United States’ economy would benefit since rising food prices benefit countries that can export food. On the hurting end of that model? China.